The U.S. Republican Party appears close to solidifying control of the House of Representatives, completing a full sweep after winning the White House and Senate in the 2024 elections. As of the latest count, Republicans lead in 14 of the remaining 27 House races, with Democrats holding 199 seats and Republicans 210. To secure the majority, a party must reach 218 seats, and current results suggest Republicans are on track to achieve this, in line with Polymarket bettors’ predictions.
Throughout election night, prediction markets like Polymarket reflected growing confidence in a Republican House win. The betting odds favoring a Republican majority climbed steadily, peaking at a 98.5% chance.
Several critical races have garnered attention as Republicans push for a two-year hold on the House. In Alaska, Republican Nick Begich has maintained a 10,000-vote lead over Democrat Mary Peltola, who received support from crypto-aligned PAC Fairshake. Meanwhile, in Arizona, David Schweikert, co-founder of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus, holds a slim lead, as does fellow Republican Eli Crane. Iowa’s closely contested race sees Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks with a narrow 0.2% advantage, which could lead to a recount.
As for Democrats, they would need to win all of their California races, many of which remain uncalled, to have a chance at reclaiming the House majority. However, Republicans are currently leading in seven California races, including those of Fairshake-backed candidates David Valadao, Michael Garcia, Young Kim, and Michelle Steel.
In the overall House tally, Republicans seem positioned to secure around 224 seats, gaining a modest advantage over the previous Congress. Polymarket bettors currently assign an 86% probability to this outcome, significantly higher than the 20% estimate when polls first closed. Should this projection hold, the Republican Party will have achieved a major political sweep, confirming a strong showing across all branches of government in the 2024 elections.
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